This analysis is based on Google search terms (for the month of Dec 08) used in the gluten free market. As Google usually has a large market share in most countries and also has specific country domains, this provides a perfect baseline to compare gluten free markets across the world.

This article is set out in the following format:

Identification Of the Four Gluten Free Market Tiers

Introduction Comparison Of Communities By Their Market Tiers

The following are available in the full article on our website

FULL ANALYSIS PER COMMUNITY

Statistic Tables for each community

GFP MATRIX: Identification Of the Four Gluten Free Market Tiers

So far four market levels (TIERS) have been identified.

A fully matured gluten free market has not been reached yet due to the low diagnosis of celiac disease even in developed countries. So far, analysis has shown that the most developed gf markets are those in Australia, the US and Canada. Characteristics of the e-demand side of these are a high number of search terms and high search volumes.

Of the search terms used in tier 1 communities , they are typically dominated by generic gluten free terms where the first 2 to 3 terms represent over 55% of the top 50 searches . This is the case in Australia, US (English speaking) and Canada (English). It is speculated that in these countries there are a significant number of celiacs who have been diagnosed for a few years. They originally searched for information on the disease and diets required and now prefer to spend more time searching for generic gluten free terms. By doing so they have found that on the supply side of things products have been amassed in the one place. This means that by searching on generic terms they can easily find large gluten free sites that contain many gluten free products on which they can search internally for specific terms. While generic searches are large, searches on the celiac group are still the second highest and account for over 15% of the top 50 searches. Within this group two terms ‘celiac’ and ‘celiac disease’ typically account for over 85% of all searches .

The next level of market maturity (tier 2) is shown by communities like US Spanish speaking and Canadian French speaking communities. These communities are often smaller than the dominant communities (often English) in their countries but they have first world affluence available to them. They often have under 100 total search terms over a twelve month average. In this example, US Spanish has 17 search terms and Canadian French have 30. The relatively high level of affluence within these communities increases the individual’s chances of being diagnosed and pursuing a often more difficult and costly gluten free diet (as compared with tier 4 markets. These ‘second tier’ communities also have a high search proportion devoted to generic gluten free terms but there is also a higher proportion of searches (than found in tier 1 markets) devoted to finding information on celiac disease such as through celiac diet and/or wheat allergy searches.

The third market maturity (tier 3) is shown by communities such as Mexican English speaking (101 searches) and Brazilian English speaking (100 searches) communities. These communities are much smaller proportions of the country population than tier 2 markets. They are often much more affluent than the main population ethnicity (through education/ employment) or having come from more affluent countries such as America. They tend to not search so much for generic gluten free terms (less than 45%) but have an increase in searches for celiac diet searches and specific food groups. This pattern is indicative of newly diagnosed people (having access to good medical attention). The other main trait of this market is that it includes people who have had the disease for a while and are now seeking specialist gluten free products such as ‘gluten free restaurants’ or ‘desserts’ – rather than staple gluten free foods such as flour or breads.

The lowest developed market (tier 4) is reflected by searches in Mexico (Spanish Speaking) 24 total searches and Brazil (Portuguese speaking) 23 searches. The communities also tend to have very low searches per head of population and may not have access to good medical facilities – often a large rural population. These people have a relatively small proportion of generic searches and a much higher number of ‘wheat free’ and ‘celiac’ searches. While they also have higher search volumes for specialty gluten free foods, rather than bread searches (main specialty in refined markets) or desserts, they tend to search for even more fundamental food staples such as flour and oatmeal. Counter intuitively they also tend to search for cakes and cookies. This is not necessarily related to the countries affluence but is more likely a social phenomenon where providing good food spreads for parties and extended family gatherings account for a large part of their social interaction.

INTRODUCTION 

Higher choice and lower prices will likely occur in tier 1 market countries as more celiacs are diagnosed and search for and buy more products. The development will reach maturity once the growth of the market goes through a point of inflexion in its growth and begins to plateau. Only long term monitoring of this demand can assess where that level of maturity approaches saturation.

The development of the market level definitions (tier structure) will be refined as more countries are analysed.

A practical application of this analysis for celiacs is to see what other celiacs are searching for and how developed the gluten free market is in their own countries. This article attempts to answer the question “what are the characteristics of a mature gluten free market”.

This research and analysis was undertaken to see if there is a correlation between gluten free search profiles of developed nations and how this may differ from countries in close proximity to the US.

A previous article on www.glutenfreepages.com.au showed a very strong correlation between gluten free search profiles of Australia and the US. In the article you are now reading, analysis was refined to include the affect of languages, internet usage, Google market share etc . Where countries use several languages, analysis was performed on English searches and the other local language.

This research was undertaken for the month of December 2008 Google search volumes for Gluten free products and uses monthly averages over a year in countries where search volatility is high and/or search volumes low. The analysis again shows a very strong correlation between the Australian and US Gluten free markets.

One of the first indictors or market maturity is considered to be the number of ‘gluten free’ related internet searches per ‘population divided by 100′. This takes into consideration that approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed) may be celiac.

TABLE: A table showing the number of monthly searches per celiac for each community is shown in the full article.

The Adjusted GF Searches per month per celiac column takes into consideration internet usage, Google market share. The values are most accurate for the first three countries, ‘developed’ nations. These countries have a long established internet usage and Google was able to provide search terms up to its self imposed limit of 200 terms. The search values for Mexico and Brazil English speaking are likely to be inflated due to sparse information on the penetration of English language in these countries and Google’s translation abilities.

The most important concept in this research is the gluten free grouping profiles . As explained below, all gluten free terms were assigned to one of seven groups . The top 50 search terms were sorted into these groups and groups were analysed for number of terms, proportion of the top 50 and the specific terms within each group. While the following pages go into the details of each country a summary of the analysis is:

GRAPH : “Guten Free Product Search Term Group Proportions of TOP 50 terms” is shown in the full article.

Group Composition

The following shows some of the representative terms in each group.

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

GF Specific Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

COMPARISON of Communities by their Market Tiers

Australia, US English, Canada English.

Australian, US English speaking and Canadian English groups had very similar profiles. Each country had the ‘generic gluten free’ group as its main group with the following volume proportions: AUS 65%, US Eng 64%, Canadian Eng 63%. In each case the same ‘gluten and gluten free’ generic terms rated as the top two overall searched terms by volume.

The celiac group was the second largest volume searched by all three countries: AUS (18%), US Eng (21%), Canada Eng (21%). Each category was dominated by over 85% by the terms ‘celiac’ and ‘celiac disease’. Dual spellings in Australia.

US Spanish, Canadian French

The graphs show that these communities are similar to the three above, at least in the proportion of the generic ‘gluten free products’ group.

One of the main things that affects the distribution profile of these communities is that US Spanish searches only comprised a total of 19 terms compared to US English that was capped by Google at 200. Per population of the American English V Spanish community, the English speaking community performed 4.2 times as many gluten free product searches as US Spanish speaking people on Google.

For the US Spanish community, the ‘celiac’ group was the highest volume proportion of any of the countries analysed. While the US and Australia searched for generic ‘celiac’ terms in this group the US Spanish search for ‘celiac allergies’. This suggests a possible different approach to the way each country views celiac disease.

Compared to the US English, these communities also have a stronger interest in wheat issues. While the US English searched for 3 terms in this group it only made up 4% of volumes. The US Spanish searched for only one term: ‘wheat intolerance’ and it made up 18% of total search volumes. These factors suggest the US Spanish searchers are new to celiac disease and the market is immature compared to the first three countries.

The Canadian French speaking community had a similar profile to Canadian English but a much higher interest in the ‘gluten diet’ group and slightly higher interest in GF specific foods. These terms are accounted for by them looking at the specifics of what they can eat, and specific foods of gluten free ‘oatmeal’ and ‘quinoa’. The higher interest in the diet group suggests that they are either more specialised in their searches than their English counterparts or are earlier in the disease diagnosis stage.

Mexican English / Brazilian English

In each community English is a very small minority of the population but is massively over represented in search volumes. As Google has country specific domains in each countries main language this statistic suggest that these English communities are more aware of gluten issues, are more affluent, and potentially represent a more mature search market.

There is a strong similarity between the Mexican English and Brazil English speaking group profiles. Both communities have a significantly reduced generic search focus but a similar increases in GF specific foods and Gluten Diet information. Quite a few of the English speaking people in these countries are believed to either be affluent locals or foreigners (ex pat US).

In the Mexican English speaking community, the highest searched group is ‘gf locations’ and the highest volume terms are related to gluten free restaurants. The second highest group ‘celiac’ is dominated by several equally search volume terms that use three and four word search strings. The third group ‘gf specific foods’ is dominated by searches for desserts. This suggests a split in focus between people newly diagnosed and those who are affluent enough to regularly search for gluten free restaurants and desserts.

In the ‘Brazil English’ community there was an even stronger fascination with gluten free desserts taking up three individual search terms – the first two accounting for 9% of all searches. Coelaic (UK spelling) was the second most searched group and it contained only one term which accounted for 24% of search volumes. The highest specific food searches were for cakes and muffins, whereas in US English and Australia top specific searches were for breads.

Mexican Spanish, Brazil Portuguese.

The profiles for these communities were the most unlike the US English and Australian. The table at the beginning of this article also shows that in raw terms they had one tenth the searches per head.

Mexican Spanish differs from market 1 profiles as much by its large reduction in generic searches as its large increase in searches on wheat issues. In fact three of the top ‘wheat free’ searches accounted for 44% of top 50 volumes. This suggests a community in early stages of diagnosis and discovery. The two highest specific gf food searches were for ‘oatmeal’ and ‘flour’. These non luxury items, low search volumes and focus on wheat free issues suggests a non affluent community searching for fixes to staple food groups.

Brazil Portuguese has a very large population but low search volumes. In fact it has nine times the population of Australia, but less than half the searches on gluten free products. While generic gluten searches were the main search group at 44% (20% less than US and AUS), its first two terms were still the same generic terms. Of most interest is that this community has the highest specific food group volume proportion of all countries. And rather than an interest in food staples, they focus on gluten free cakes (18% of top 50 searches), and cookies 10%. They also search for gluten free flour (3%) and oatmeal (2%).

With the third highest group being ‘wheat free’ and gluten allergies Brazil’s market resembles the split shown in Mexico (English) between learning about celiac disease and enjoying treats. However rather than searching on restaurants, the Brazilian Portuguese interest in cakes may be seen as a cultural choice (socialising and providing family spreads) rather than an opulent choice.

GRAPH : A graph on our website shows the relationship between a tier 1 community (place that is nearing market maturity) AND a high proportion that its top two searches take up of the top 50 searches AND a high number of searches per (population / 100).

MORE INFORMATION:

The development of the GFP MATRIX and market level definitions (tier structure) will be refined as more countries are analysed. The above information is a summary of the full article that can be found at www.glutenfreepages.com.au To find this article, look under the menu tab ‘Articles’, then ‘GFP Original articles’. The full report analyses each community in detail and shows graphs and statistic tables associated with each community.  

Similar Allergy Articles

• How Mature is the US Gluten Free Market? Comparison With Aus, Canada, Mexico & Brazil Yields the Gfp Matrix. See Why US is Tier 1 !
• How Mature is the US Gluten Free Market? Comparison With Aus, Canada, Mexico & Brazil Yields the Gfp Matrix. See Why US is Tier 1 !
• Why are Europe’s Gluten Free Markets so Under-developed Compared to the Us? Google Data From Dec 08 is Used to See What They Search for …
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis

This analysis is based on Google search terms (for the month of Dec 08) used in the gluten free market. As Google usually has a large market share in most countries and also has specific country domains, this provides a perfect baseline to compare gluten free markets across the world.

This article is set out in the following format:

Identification Of the Four Gluten Free Market Tiers

Introduction Comparison Of Communities By Their Market Tiers

The following are available in the full article on our website

FULL ANALYSIS PER COMMUNITY

Statistic Tables for each community

GFP MATRIX: Identification Of the Four Gluten Free Market Tiers

So far four market levels (TIERS) have been identified.

A fully matured gluten free market has not been reached yet due to the low diagnosis of celiac disease even in developed countries. So far, analysis has shown that the most developed gf markets are those in Australia, the US and Canada. Characteristics of the e-demand side of these are a high number of search terms and high search volumes.

Of the search terms used in tier 1 communities , they are typically dominated by generic gluten free terms where the first 2 to 3 terms represent over 55% of the top 50 searches . This is the case in Australia, US (English speaking) and Canada (English). It is speculated that in these countries there are a significant number of celiacs who have been diagnosed for a few years. They originally searched for information on the disease and diets required and now prefer to spend more time searching for generic gluten free terms. By doing so they have found that on the supply side of things products have been amassed in the one place. This means that by searching on generic terms they can easily find large gluten free sites that contain many gluten free products on which they can search internally for specific terms. While generic searches are large, searches on the celiac group are still the second highest and account for over 15% of the top 50 searches. Within this group two terms ‘celiac’ and ‘celiac disease’ typically account for over 85% of all searches .

The next level of market maturity (tier 2) is shown by communities like US Spanish speaking and Canadian French speaking communities. These communities are often smaller than the dominant communities (often English) in their countries but they have first world affluence available to them. They often have under 100 total search terms over a twelve month average. In this example, US Spanish has 17 search terms and Canadian French have 30. The relatively high level of affluence within these communities increases the individual’s chances of being diagnosed and pursuing a often more difficult and costly gluten free diet (as compared with tier 4 markets. These ‘second tier’ communities also have a high search proportion devoted to generic gluten free terms but there is also a higher proportion of searches (than found in tier 1 markets) devoted to finding information on celiac disease such as through celiac diet and/or wheat allergy searches.

The third market maturity (tier 3) is shown by communities such as Mexican English speaking (101 searches) and Brazilian English speaking (100 searches) communities. These communities are much smaller proportions of the country population than tier 2 markets. They are often much more affluent than the main population ethnicity (through education/ employment) or having come from more affluent countries such as America. They tend to not search so much for generic gluten free terms (less than 45%) but have an increase in searches for celiac diet searches and specific food groups. This pattern is indicative of newly diagnosed people (having access to good medical attention). The other main trait of this market is that it includes people who have had the disease for a while and are now seeking specialist gluten free products such as ‘gluten free restaurants’ or ‘desserts’ – rather than staple gluten free foods such as flour or breads.

The lowest developed market (tier 4) is reflected by searches in Mexico (Spanish Speaking) 24 total searches and Brazil (Portuguese speaking) 23 searches. The communities also tend to have very low searches per head of population and may not have access to good medical facilities – often a large rural population. These people have a relatively small proportion of generic searches and a much higher number of ‘wheat free’ and ‘celiac’ searches. While they also have higher search volumes for specialty gluten free foods, rather than bread searches (main specialty in refined markets) or desserts, they tend to search for even more fundamental food staples such as flour and oatmeal. Counter intuitively they also tend to search for cakes and cookies. This is not necessarily related to the countries affluence but is more likely a social phenomenon where providing good food spreads for parties and extended family gatherings account for a large part of their social interaction.

INTRODUCTION 

Higher choice and lower prices will likely occur in tier 1 market countries as more celiacs are diagnosed and search for and buy more products. The development will reach maturity once the growth of the market goes through a point of inflexion in its growth and begins to plateau. Only long term monitoring of this demand can assess where that level of maturity approaches saturation.

The development of the market level definitions (tier structure) will be refined as more countries are analysed.

A practical application of this analysis for celiacs is to see what other celiacs are searching for and how developed the gluten free market is in their own countries. This article attempts to answer the question “what are the characteristics of a mature gluten free market”.

This research and analysis was undertaken to see if there is a correlation between gluten free search profiles of developed nations and how this may differ from countries in close proximity to the US.

A previous article on www.glutenfreepages.com.au showed a very strong correlation between gluten free search profiles of Australia and the US. In the article you are now reading, analysis was refined to include the affect of languages, internet usage, Google market share etc . Where countries use several languages, analysis was performed on English searches and the other local language.

This research was undertaken for the month of December 2008 Google search volumes for Gluten free products and uses monthly averages over a year in countries where search volatility is high and/or search volumes low. The analysis again shows a very strong correlation between the Australian and US Gluten free markets.

One of the first indictors or market maturity is considered to be the number of ‘gluten free’ related internet searches per ‘population divided by 100′. This takes into consideration that approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed) may be celiac.

TABLE: A table showing the number of monthly searches per celiac for each community is shown in the full article.

The Adjusted GF Searches per month per celiac column takes into consideration internet usage, Google market share. The values are most accurate for the first three countries, ‘developed’ nations. These countries have a long established internet usage and Google was able to provide search terms up to its self imposed limit of 200 terms. The search values for Mexico and Brazil English speaking are likely to be inflated due to sparse information on the penetration of English language in these countries and Google’s translation abilities.

The most important concept in this research is the gluten free grouping profiles . As explained below, all gluten free terms were assigned to one of seven groups . The top 50 search terms were sorted into these groups and groups were analysed for number of terms, proportion of the top 50 and the specific terms within each group. While the following pages go into the details of each country a summary of the analysis is:

GRAPH : “Guten Free Product Search Term Group Proportions of TOP 50 terms” is shown in the full article.

Group Composition

The following shows some of the representative terms in each group.

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

GF Specific Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

COMPARISON of Communities by their Market Tiers

Australia, US English, Canada English.

Australian, US English speaking and Canadian English groups had very similar profiles. Each country had the ‘generic gluten free’ group as its main group with the following volume proportions: AUS 65%, US Eng 64%, Canadian Eng 63%. In each case the same ‘gluten and gluten free’ generic terms rated as the top two overall searched terms by volume.

The celiac group was the second largest volume searched by all three countries: AUS (18%), US Eng (21%), Canada Eng (21%). Each category was dominated by over 85% by the terms ‘celiac’ and ‘celiac disease’. Dual spellings in Australia.

US Spanish, Canadian French

The graphs show that these communities are similar to the three above, at least in the proportion of the generic ‘gluten free products’ group.

One of the main things that affects the distribution profile of these communities is that US Spanish searches only comprised a total of 19 terms compared to US English that was capped by Google at 200. Per population of the American English V Spanish community, the English speaking community performed 4.2 times as many gluten free product searches as US Spanish speaking people on Google.

For the US Spanish community, the ‘celiac’ group was the highest volume proportion of any of the countries analysed. While the US and Australia searched for generic ‘celiac’ terms in this group the US Spanish search for ‘celiac allergies’. This suggests a possible different approach to the way each country views celiac disease.

Compared to the US English, these communities also have a stronger interest in wheat issues. While the US English searched for 3 terms in this group it only made up 4% of volumes. The US Spanish searched for only one term: ‘wheat intolerance’ and it made up 18% of total search volumes. These factors suggest the US Spanish searchers are new to celiac disease and the market is immature compared to the first three countries.

The Canadian French speaking community had a similar profile to Canadian English but a much higher interest in the ‘gluten diet’ group and slightly higher interest in GF specific foods. These terms are accounted for by them looking at the specifics of what they can eat, and specific foods of gluten free ‘oatmeal’ and ‘quinoa’. The higher interest in the diet group suggests that they are either more specialised in their searches than their English counterparts or are earlier in the disease diagnosis stage.

Mexican English / Brazilian English

In each community English is a very small minority of the population but is massively over represented in search volumes. As Google has country specific domains in each countries main language this statistic suggest that these English communities are more aware of gluten issues, are more affluent, and potentially represent a more mature search market.

There is a strong similarity between the Mexican English and Brazil English speaking group profiles. Both communities have a significantly reduced generic search focus but a similar increases in GF specific foods and Gluten Diet information. Quite a few of the English speaking people in these countries are believed to either be affluent locals or foreigners (ex pat US).

In the Mexican English speaking community, the highest searched group is ‘gf locations’ and the highest volume terms are related to gluten free restaurants. The second highest group ‘celiac’ is dominated by several equally search volume terms that use three and four word search strings. The third group ‘gf specific foods’ is dominated by searches for desserts. This suggests a split in focus between people newly diagnosed and those who are affluent enough to regularly search for gluten free restaurants and desserts.

In the ‘Brazil English’ community there was an even stronger fascination with gluten free desserts taking up three individual search terms – the first two accounting for 9% of all searches. Coelaic (UK spelling) was the second most searched group and it contained only one term which accounted for 24% of search volumes. The highest specific food searches were for cakes and muffins, whereas in US English and Australia top specific searches were for breads.

Mexican Spanish, Brazil Portuguese.

The profiles for these communities were the most unlike the US English and Australian. The table at the beginning of this article also shows that in raw terms they had one tenth the searches per head.

Mexican Spanish differs from market 1 profiles as much by its large reduction in generic searches as its large increase in searches on wheat issues. In fact three of the top ‘wheat free’ searches accounted for 44% of top 50 volumes. This suggests a community in early stages of diagnosis and discovery. The two highest specific gf food searches were for ‘oatmeal’ and ‘flour’. These non luxury items, low search volumes and focus on wheat free issues suggests a non affluent community searching for fixes to staple food groups.

Brazil Portuguese has a very large population but low search volumes. In fact it has nine times the population of Australia, but less than half the searches on gluten free products. While generic gluten searches were the main search group at 44% (20% less than US and AUS), its first two terms were still the same generic terms. Of most interest is that this community has the highest specific food group volume proportion of all countries. And rather than an interest in food staples, they focus on gluten free cakes (18% of top 50 searches), and cookies 10%. They also search for gluten free flour (3%) and oatmeal (2%).

With the third highest group being ‘wheat free’ and gluten allergies Brazil’s market resembles the split shown in Mexico (English) between learning about celiac disease and enjoying treats. However rather than searching on restaurants, the Brazilian Portuguese interest in cakes may be seen as a cultural choice (socialising and providing family spreads) rather than an opulent choice.

GRAPH : A graph on our website shows the relationship between a tier 1 community (place that is nearing market maturity) AND a high proportion that its top two searches take up of the top 50 searches AND a high number of searches per (population / 100).

MORE INFORMATION:

The development of the GFP MATRIX and market level definitions (tier structure) will be refined as more countries are analysed. The above information is a summary of the full article that can be found at www.glutenfreepages.com.au To find this article, look under the menu tab ‘Articles’, then ‘GFP Original articles’. The full report analyses each community in detail and shows graphs and statistic tables associated with each community.  

Similar Allergy Articles

• How Mature is the US Gluten Free Market? Comparison With Aus, Canada, Mexico & Brazil Yields the Gfp Matrix. See Why US is Tier 1 !
• How Mature is the US Gluten Free Market? Comparison With Aus, Canada, Mexico & Brazil Yields the Gfp Matrix. See Why US is Tier 1 !
• Why are Europe’s Gluten Free Markets so Under-developed Compared to the Us? Google Data From Dec 08 is Used to See What They Search for …
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis

This analysis is based on Google search terms (for the month of Dec 08) used in the gluten free market. As Google usually has a large market share in most countries and also has specific country domains, this provides a perfect baseline to compare gluten free markets across the world.

This article is set out in the following format:

Identification Of the Four Gluten Free Market Tiers

Introduction Comparison Of Communities By Their Market Tiers

The following are available in the full article on our website

FULL ANALYSIS PER COMMUNITY

Statistic Tables for each community

GFP MATRIX: Identification Of the Four Gluten Free Market Tiers

So far four market levels (TIERS) have been identified.

A fully matured gluten free market has not been reached yet due to the low diagnosis of celiac disease even in developed countries. So far, analysis has shown that the most developed gf markets are those in Australia, the US and Canada. Characteristics of the e-demand side of these are a high number of search terms and high search volumes.

Of the search terms used in tier 1 communities , they are typically dominated by generic gluten free terms where the first 2 to 3 terms represent over 55% of the top 50 searches . This is the case in Australia, US (English speaking) and Canada (English). It is speculated that in these countries there are a significant number of celiacs who have been diagnosed for a few years. They originally searched for information on the disease and diets required and now prefer to spend more time searching for generic gluten free terms. By doing so they have found that on the supply side of things products have been amassed in the one place. This means that by searching on generic terms they can easily find large gluten free sites that contain many gluten free products on which they can search internally for specific terms. While generic searches are large, searches on the celiac group are still the second highest and account for over 15% of the top 50 searches. Within this group two terms ‘celiac’ and ‘celiac disease’ typically account for over 85% of all searches .

The next level of market maturity (tier 2) is shown by communities like US Spanish speaking and Canadian French speaking communities. These communities are often smaller than the dominant communities (often English) in their countries but they have first world affluence available to them. They often have under 100 total search terms over a twelve month average. In this example, US Spanish has 17 search terms and Canadian French have 30. The relatively high level of affluence within these communities increases the individual’s chances of being diagnosed and pursuing a often more difficult and costly gluten free diet (as compared with tier 4 markets. These ‘second tier’ communities also have a high search proportion devoted to generic gluten free terms but there is also a higher proportion of searches (than found in tier 1 markets) devoted to finding information on celiac disease such as through celiac diet and/or wheat allergy searches.

The third market maturity (tier 3) is shown by communities such as Mexican English speaking (101 searches) and Brazilian English speaking (100 searches) communities. These communities are much smaller proportions of the country population than tier 2 markets. They are often much more affluent than the main population ethnicity (through education/ employment) or having come from more affluent countries such as America. They tend to not search so much for generic gluten free terms (less than 45%) but have an increase in searches for celiac diet searches and specific food groups. This pattern is indicative of newly diagnosed people (having access to good medical attention). The other main trait of this market is that it includes people who have had the disease for a while and are now seeking specialist gluten free products such as ‘gluten free restaurants’ or ‘desserts’ – rather than staple gluten free foods such as flour or breads.

The lowest developed market (tier 4) is reflected by searches in Mexico (Spanish Speaking) 24 total searches and Brazil (Portuguese speaking) 23 searches. The communities also tend to have very low searches per head of population and may not have access to good medical facilities – often a large rural population. These people have a relatively small proportion of generic searches and a much higher number of ‘wheat free’ and ‘celiac’ searches. While they also have higher search volumes for specialty gluten free foods, rather than bread searches (main specialty in refined markets) or desserts, they tend to search for even more fundamental food staples such as flour and oatmeal. Counter intuitively they also tend to search for cakes and cookies. This is not necessarily related to the countries affluence but is more likely a social phenomenon where providing good food spreads for parties and extended family gatherings account for a large part of their social interaction.

INTRODUCTION 

Higher choice and lower prices will likely occur in tier 1 market countries as more celiacs are diagnosed and search for and buy more products. The development will reach maturity once the growth of the market goes through a point of inflexion in its growth and begins to plateau. Only long term monitoring of this demand can assess where that level of maturity approaches saturation.

The development of the market level definitions (tier structure) will be refined as more countries are analysed.

A practical application of this analysis for celiacs is to see what other celiacs are searching for and how developed the gluten free market is in their own countries. This article attempts to answer the question “what are the characteristics of a mature gluten free market”.

This research and analysis was undertaken to see if there is a correlation between gluten free search profiles of developed nations and how this may differ from countries in close proximity to the US.

A previous article on www.glutenfreepages.com.au showed a very strong correlation between gluten free search profiles of Australia and the US. In the article you are now reading, analysis was refined to include the affect of languages, internet usage, Google market share etc . Where countries use several languages, analysis was performed on English searches and the other local language.

This research was undertaken for the month of December 2008 Google search volumes for Gluten free products and uses monthly averages over a year in countries where search volatility is high and/or search volumes low. The analysis again shows a very strong correlation between the Australian and US Gluten free markets.

One of the first indictors or market maturity is considered to be the number of ‘gluten free’ related internet searches per ‘population divided by 100′. This takes into consideration that approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed) may be celiac.

TABLE: A table showing the number of monthly searches per celiac for each community is shown in the full article.

The Adjusted GF Searches per month per celiac column takes into consideration internet usage, Google market share. The values are most accurate for the first three countries, ‘developed’ nations. These countries have a long established internet usage and Google was able to provide search terms up to its self imposed limit of 200 terms. The search values for Mexico and Brazil English speaking are likely to be inflated due to sparse information on the penetration of English language in these countries and Google’s translation abilities.

The most important concept in this research is the gluten free grouping profiles . As explained below, all gluten free terms were assigned to one of seven groups . The top 50 search terms were sorted into these groups and groups were analysed for number of terms, proportion of the top 50 and the specific terms within each group. While the following pages go into the details of each country a summary of the analysis is:

GRAPH : “Guten Free Product Search Term Group Proportions of TOP 50 terms” is shown in the full article.

Group Composition

The following shows some of the representative terms in each group.

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

GF Specific Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

COMPARISON of Communities by their Market Tiers

Australia, US English, Canada English.

Australian, US English speaking and Canadian English groups had very similar profiles. Each country had the ‘generic gluten free’ group as its main group with the following volume proportions: AUS 65%, US Eng 64%, Canadian Eng 63%. In each case the same ‘gluten and gluten free’ generic terms rated as the top two overall searched terms by volume.

The celiac group was the second largest volume searched by all three countries: AUS (18%), US Eng (21%), Canada Eng (21%). Each category was dominated by over 85% by the terms ‘celiac’ and ‘celiac disease’. Dual spellings in Australia.

US Spanish, Canadian French

The graphs show that these communities are similar to the three above, at least in the proportion of the generic ‘gluten free products’ group.

One of the main things that affects the distribution profile of these communities is that US Spanish searches only comprised a total of 19 terms compared to US English that was capped by Google at 200. Per population of the American English V Spanish community, the English speaking community performed 4.2 times as many gluten free product searches as US Spanish speaking people on Google.

For the US Spanish community, the ‘celiac’ group was the highest volume proportion of any of the countries analysed. While the US and Australia searched for generic ‘celiac’ terms in this group the US Spanish search for ‘celiac allergies’. This suggests a possible different approach to the way each country views celiac disease.

Compared to the US English, these communities also have a stronger interest in wheat issues. While the US English searched for 3 terms in this group it only made up 4% of volumes. The US Spanish searched for only one term: ‘wheat intolerance’ and it made up 18% of total search volumes. These factors suggest the US Spanish searchers are new to celiac disease and the market is immature compared to the first three countries.

The Canadian French speaking community had a similar profile to Canadian English but a much higher interest in the ‘gluten diet’ group and slightly higher interest in GF specific foods. These terms are accounted for by them looking at the specifics of what they can eat, and specific foods of gluten free ‘oatmeal’ and ‘quinoa’. The higher interest in the diet group suggests that they are either more specialised in their searches than their English counterparts or are earlier in the disease diagnosis stage.

Mexican English / Brazilian English

In each community English is a very small minority of the population but is massively over represented in search volumes. As Google has country specific domains in each countries main language this statistic suggest that these English communities are more aware of gluten issues, are more affluent, and potentially represent a more mature search market.

There is a strong similarity between the Mexican English and Brazil English speaking group profiles. Both communities have a significantly reduced generic search focus but a similar increases in GF specific foods and Gluten Diet information. Quite a few of the English speaking people in these countries are believed to either be affluent locals or foreigners (ex pat US).

In the Mexican English speaking community, the highest searched group is ‘gf locations’ and the highest volume terms are related to gluten free restaurants. The second highest group ‘celiac’ is dominated by several equally search volume terms that use three and four word search strings. The third group ‘gf specific foods’ is dominated by searches for desserts. This suggests a split in focus between people newly diagnosed and those who are affluent enough to regularly search for gluten free restaurants and desserts.

In the ‘Brazil English’ community there was an even stronger fascination with gluten free desserts taking up three individual search terms – the first two accounting for 9% of all searches. Coelaic (UK spelling) was the second most searched group and it contained only one term which accounted for 24% of search volumes. The highest specific food searches were for cakes and muffins, whereas in US English and Australia top specific searches were for breads.

Mexican Spanish, Brazil Portuguese.

The profiles for these communities were the most unlike the US English and Australian. The table at the beginning of this article also shows that in raw terms they had one tenth the searches per head.

Mexican Spanish differs from market 1 profiles as much by its large reduction in generic searches as its large increase in searches on wheat issues. In fact three of the top ‘wheat free’ searches accounted for 44% of top 50 volumes. This suggests a community in early stages of diagnosis and discovery. The two highest specific gf food searches were for ‘oatmeal’ and ‘flour’. These non luxury items, low search volumes and focus on wheat free issues suggests a non affluent community searching for fixes to staple food groups.

Brazil Portuguese has a very large population but low search volumes. In fact it has nine times the population of Australia, but less than half the searches on gluten free products. While generic gluten searches were the main search group at 44% (20% less than US and AUS), its first two terms were still the same generic terms. Of most interest is that this community has the highest specific food group volume proportion of all countries. And rather than an interest in food staples, they focus on gluten free cakes (18% of top 50 searches), and cookies 10%. They also search for gluten free flour (3%) and oatmeal (2%).

With the third highest group being ‘wheat free’ and gluten allergies Brazil’s market resembles the split shown in Mexico (English) between learning about celiac disease and enjoying treats. However rather than searching on restaurants, the Brazilian Portuguese interest in cakes may be seen as a cultural choice (socialising and providing family spreads) rather than an opulent choice.

GRAPH : A graph on our website shows the relationship between a tier 1 community (place that is nearing market maturity) AND a high proportion that its top two searches take up of the top 50 searches AND a high number of searches per (population / 100).

MORE INFORMATION:

The development of the GFP MATRIX and market level definitions (tier structure) will be refined as more countries are analysed. The above information is a summary of the full article that can be found at www.glutenfreepages.com.au To find this article, look under the menu tab ‘Articles’, then ‘GFP Original articles’. The full report analyses each community in detail and shows graphs and statistic tables associated with each community.  

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The definition of Tier 1 (very low) and Tier 3 (very high) gluten markets

Outliers to the standard trend called hyper and hypo markets

A linear relationship is shown between raw searches and Adjusted Celiac Searches

A logarithmic relation is shown between a countries adjusted searches and the wealth of the country (per person).

This research draws together all previous GFP Matrix research and articles on the GFP website and is based on analysis of Google search results for gluten products made in December 2008. The analysis compares communities in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Communities are defined as specific language segments within a country. Most countries have the bulk of their market defined by their incumbent language searches and English language searches.

To assist analysis, gluten related search terms were divided into seven groups as shown below. Only the top 50 search terms were used for detailed statistical analysis, but in most cases, these fifty terms represent 95% of all terms.

Gluten Group Composition:

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

GF Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

Specific GF Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

Another main concept in this research was the development of a term called ‘ Adjusted Celiac searches’ . This value is based on raw gluten search term volumes and ‘adjusted’ (increased) to account for internet usage in a country as well as the probable total search engine gluten queries (using specific country Google Market share as the basis). This adjusted value thus estimates the total gluten searches as if 100% of a country had internet access and all search engine results were used. This intermediate value is then divided by 100 to gain a monthly ‘adjusted celiac search’ value. This assumes that the average celiac rate is approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed). This hypothetical value thus estimates the average number of times that a celiac searched for gluten free products in a community per month – assuming that all celiac’s search. Note that the main difference in English spelling in all countries is whether they use celiac (UK derived) or celiac (USA).

While it was found that a communities number of raw searches per population can act as a rough guide to its level of development, there are several exceptions. It was found that at the very low (Tier 3) and high raw searches positions (Tier 1), a pattern emerged in how the search groups are proportioned. See below:

TIER

1 characteristics

The primary classification of this group is high raw search results (searches / population). The group comprises: Australia (0.0218), US (0.0123); Canada English (0.0175); UK (0.0135); Singapore English (0.02730). Singapore’s standout result is partly due to the countries very high economic success (GDP per person) and its very high usage of telecommunications (see Asia GFP Matrix article).

At the high ‘raw search’ end of the spectrum, (AND high adjusted celiac searches) it was found that there are a high proportion of ‘generic gluten searches’ compared to other groups. It was also found that the majority of these searches were for CORE generic terms such as: gluten, gluten free, gluten free food, gluten free products etc

And of these generic searches, usually two terms comprise 90% or more of the total group’s searches . There are also usually more than ten generic terms in the top 50 search terms. While several tier 3 communities also have the top two terms being a high proportion of the group, the group usually comprises only five or less terms.

The second highest group is usually the celiac group . Like the generic group these terms are often CORE terms such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance etc.

The specific food group on average has a low proportion of seven percent of the top 50 searches.

It is speculated that the reason for the top two groups comprise 70% TO 80% of top 50 searches are that in the generic group, these communities are in high internet penetration and have high economic wealth countries where high demand has created a high supply of gluten websites. The gluten specific websites act like gluten malls with internal search functions that people use to find the gluten info they are after. Whereas in less developed countries these large sites may not exist and people have learned to use unique and three or four word search terms to find what they want right from the search engine stage.

The high proportion of celiac group searches are most likely by newly diagnosed people and older diagnosed attempting to find if new medical breakthroughs have occurred in the disease. Again CORE terms usually dominate this group because there are enough large all encompassing celiac devoted sites that provide the answers people are seeking.

What foods to TIER 1 communities search for? The table below shows that bread (1.6); is almost always the first and/ or second searched for term. Then on average the next three most popular specific food items are cake (2.5), dairy (3.5) and pizza (3.8).

TIER 3

The primary classification of this group is very low raw search results per population . The group comprise communities such as: US Spanish (0.0011); Mexico Spanish (0.0004); Brazil Portuguese (0.006); China Simplified (0.009); India Hindi ( (0.0004); Indonesia Indo ( 0.0008).

As can be seen from the table, the average generic search proportion for the tier 4 communities was 32% (compared to tier 1, 58%). While compared to Tier 1 communities, the average proportion of the specific foods group was three times as high at 22%.

Of the specific foods, on average the highest average ranked tier four foods were: cake (1.3), pizza (2.0), cookies (2.3), flour (2.7), bread (3.3), corn (3.5), oatmeal (3.6)

Tier 2

These communities are developing gluten free markets. Their raw searches lie somewhere between tier 1 and tier 3 communities. In graph plots of raw or adjusted celiac searches versus GDP or other similar metrics these communities form the bridge between tier 1 and tier 3 communities.

While some tier 2 or tier 3 communities may appear to have high generic searches, often a high proportion of these are for non-core terms such as: gluten free breakfast, gluten free snacks, gf desserts, gf gifts. etc

Hypo markets

These are markets that exist in highly developed countries (like tier 1 communities) have very low raw gluten searches (like tier 3 communities) and very high proportions of generic gluten searches (like tier 1) markets.

Three classic examples of tier 2 communities are the incumbent language searches in: Germany, France & Spain.

It can be seen that the average raw search value is 0.0016, the average % of Core generic terms is 81% (much higher than the average tier 1 communities) and specific foods is 6% – very close to tier 1.

Typically the specific foods searched for are similar to tier 1 communities. For example the top three foods searched for by French speaking people in France were: gluten free Flour, oatmeal and rye flour.

Assuming that European communities have a typical proportion of celiac’s per population, the low raw searches are an anomaly. These communities have a high internet penetration and relatively high Google market share so the low share is likely to be caused by low diagnosis within the communities. These areas still have a relatively high level of wheat and gluten consumption via breads and pastas so either there is something else in their diet keeping celiac disease at bay, or they find their gluten products some other way.

Hyper Markets

These are ‘ over performing’ markets.

On raw searches per population they appear like tier 3 communities, that is they have very low search values, however when adjusted for Internet penetration and Google share, they have over performing high values for ‘celiac searches’ per month.

Typically, unlike hypo markets, they are developing communities with relatively low GDP per person values. Prime examples of hyper markets are Russia English Speaking, China Traditional and Indonesia English speaking

The average raw search values are low size at 0.0035 but these convert to a very high celiac search value of 5.4. This means that these large population countries have relatively low searches, also have low internet penetration. When values are adjusted for internet penetration and Google market share they have some of the highest ‘per celiac’ searches of any communities.

Hyper markets also tend to have a lower proportion of generic searches than tier 1 and even tier 3 and the specific food searches proportion lies between that of tier 1 and tier 3.

These hyper communities are also often characterised by being smaller English speaking communities within larger non English lower economic wealth countries. It is likely that these enclaves have a higher than normal proportion of people who have access to enhanced health care (to be diagnosed in the first place) and that their relative wealth makes their gluten free tastes more exotic/ luxurious than even tier 1 communities . For example the top Russian English specific foods in order of search size are: pizza; gluten free beer; gluten free cakes; gluten free muffins.

Similarly Indonesian English speaking searches searched in order of size for: gluten free pizza, gluten free pasta; gluten free muffins then flour.

GLOBAL CONCLUSIONS

The raw search versus ‘adjusted celiac search’ plots shows a linear relationship between the two parameters . While this may be expected, this graph reveals Russia China and Indonesia as anomalies to this trend. As discussed previously, the things these places have in common are that they all have very large populations, are developing countries and have low internet penetration.

The reasons for these outliers are discussed in hyper markets section above however one of the most useful things is to see how so many developed and developing communities are clustered at the undeveloped market end of this graph . While Australia, US and Singapore markets are not anywhere near fully developed as yet (still a large undiagnosed amount of people – much less than the 1 in 100 forecast), it shows that there is a very large room for development in these markets also. As being a celiac is a disease and has severe medical consequences for its sufferers, it is amazing that very developed countries such as France, Germany and Italy should have such lowly developed gluten demand.

Even more remarkable is the implications of the plot for ‘ Adjusted celiac values V GDP per person’ resulting in a strong logarithmic trend . Ignoring the effects of outlier hypermarkets such as Russia, China and Indonesia, it can be seen that most countries lie on a steadily decreasing arc as the celiac search values increase.

This clearly demonstrates that for the majority of countries analysed that wealth (GDP per person) is a clear indicator of gluten free demand and/ or celiac diagnosis. While India and Mexico might also appear slightly off the log trend, it should be noted that these countries have very low internet penetration and so the adjustment factors to convert tier raw values into celiac search values are much more sensitive to small changes in media estimations of internet and Google share.

The relationships also suggests that particularly for countries with at least moderate internet penetration, that knowing their GDP per person value may allow an estimate of their gluten free market development and/ or diagnosis level. 

Similar Allergy Articles

• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• How Mature is the US Gluten Free Market? Comparison With Aus, Canada, Mexico & Brazil Yields the Gfp Matrix. See Why US is Tier 1 !
• Gluten Free foods are the fastest growing food category since 2004, see the growth forecasts up to 2012!

The definition of Tier 1 (very low) and Tier 3 (very high) gluten markets

Outliers to the standard trend called hyper and hypo markets

A linear relationship is shown between raw searches and Adjusted Celiac Searches

A logarithmic relation is shown between a countries adjusted searches and the wealth of the country (per person).

This research draws together all previous GFP Matrix research and articles on the GFP website and is based on analysis of Google search results for gluten products made in December 2008. The analysis compares communities in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Communities are defined as specific language segments within a country. Most countries have the bulk of their market defined by their incumbent language searches and English language searches.

To assist analysis, gluten related search terms were divided into seven groups as shown below. Only the top 50 search terms were used for detailed statistical analysis, but in most cases, these fifty terms represent 95% of all terms.

Gluten Group Composition:

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

GF Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

Specific GF Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

Another main concept in this research was the development of a term called ‘ Adjusted Celiac searches’ . This value is based on raw gluten search term volumes and ‘adjusted’ (increased) to account for internet usage in a country as well as the probable total search engine gluten queries (using specific country Google Market share as the basis). This adjusted value thus estimates the total gluten searches as if 100% of a country had internet access and all search engine results were used. This intermediate value is then divided by 100 to gain a monthly ‘adjusted celiac search’ value. This assumes that the average celiac rate is approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed). This hypothetical value thus estimates the average number of times that a celiac searched for gluten free products in a community per month – assuming that all celiac’s search. Note that the main difference in English spelling in all countries is whether they use celiac (UK derived) or celiac (USA).

While it was found that a communities number of raw searches per population can act as a rough guide to its level of development, there are several exceptions. It was found that at the very low (Tier 3) and high raw searches positions (Tier 1), a pattern emerged in how the search groups are proportioned. See below:

TIER

1 characteristics

The primary classification of this group is high raw search results (searches / population). The group comprises: Australia (0.0218), US (0.0123); Canada English (0.0175); UK (0.0135); Singapore English (0.02730). Singapore’s standout result is partly due to the countries very high economic success (GDP per person) and its very high usage of telecommunications (see Asia GFP Matrix article).

At the high ‘raw search’ end of the spectrum, (AND high adjusted celiac searches) it was found that there are a high proportion of ‘generic gluten searches’ compared to other groups. It was also found that the majority of these searches were for CORE generic terms such as: gluten, gluten free, gluten free food, gluten free products etc

And of these generic searches, usually two terms comprise 90% or more of the total group’s searches . There are also usually more than ten generic terms in the top 50 search terms. While several tier 3 communities also have the top two terms being a high proportion of the group, the group usually comprises only five or less terms.

The second highest group is usually the celiac group . Like the generic group these terms are often CORE terms such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance etc.

The specific food group on average has a low proportion of seven percent of the top 50 searches.

It is speculated that the reason for the top two groups comprise 70% TO 80% of top 50 searches are that in the generic group, these communities are in high internet penetration and have high economic wealth countries where high demand has created a high supply of gluten websites. The gluten specific websites act like gluten malls with internal search functions that people use to find the gluten info they are after. Whereas in less developed countries these large sites may not exist and people have learned to use unique and three or four word search terms to find what they want right from the search engine stage.

The high proportion of celiac group searches are most likely by newly diagnosed people and older diagnosed attempting to find if new medical breakthroughs have occurred in the disease. Again CORE terms usually dominate this group because there are enough large all encompassing celiac devoted sites that provide the answers people are seeking.

What foods to TIER 1 communities search for? The table below shows that bread (1.6); is almost always the first and/ or second searched for term. Then on average the next three most popular specific food items are cake (2.5), dairy (3.5) and pizza (3.8).

TIER 3

The primary classification of this group is very low raw search results per population . The group comprise communities such as: US Spanish (0.0011); Mexico Spanish (0.0004); Brazil Portuguese (0.006); China Simplified (0.009); India Hindi ( (0.0004); Indonesia Indo ( 0.0008).

As can be seen from the table, the average generic search proportion for the tier 4 communities was 32% (compared to tier 1, 58%). While compared to Tier 1 communities, the average proportion of the specific foods group was three times as high at 22%.

Of the specific foods, on average the highest average ranked tier four foods were: cake (1.3), pizza (2.0), cookies (2.3), flour (2.7), bread (3.3), corn (3.5), oatmeal (3.6)

Tier 2

These communities are developing gluten free markets. Their raw searches lie somewhere between tier 1 and tier 3 communities. In graph plots of raw or adjusted celiac searches versus GDP or other similar metrics these communities form the bridge between tier 1 and tier 3 communities.

While some tier 2 or tier 3 communities may appear to have high generic searches, often a high proportion of these are for non-core terms such as: gluten free breakfast, gluten free snacks, gf desserts, gf gifts. etc

Hypo markets

These are markets that exist in highly developed countries (like tier 1 communities) have very low raw gluten searches (like tier 3 communities) and very high proportions of generic gluten searches (like tier 1) markets.

Three classic examples of tier 2 communities are the incumbent language searches in: Germany, France & Spain.

It can be seen that the average raw search value is 0.0016, the average % of Core generic terms is 81% (much higher than the average tier 1 communities) and specific foods is 6% – very close to tier 1.

Typically the specific foods searched for are similar to tier 1 communities. For example the top three foods searched for by French speaking people in France were: gluten free Flour, oatmeal and rye flour.

Assuming that European communities have a typical proportion of celiac’s per population, the low raw searches are an anomaly. These communities have a high internet penetration and relatively high Google market share so the low share is likely to be caused by low diagnosis within the communities. These areas still have a relatively high level of wheat and gluten consumption via breads and pastas so either there is something else in their diet keeping celiac disease at bay, or they find their gluten products some other way.

Hyper Markets

These are ‘ over performing’ markets.

On raw searches per population they appear like tier 3 communities, that is they have very low search values, however when adjusted for Internet penetration and Google share, they have over performing high values for ‘celiac searches’ per month.

Typically, unlike hypo markets, they are developing communities with relatively low GDP per person values. Prime examples of hyper markets are Russia English Speaking, China Traditional and Indonesia English speaking

The average raw search values are low size at 0.0035 but these convert to a very high celiac search value of 5.4. This means that these large population countries have relatively low searches, also have low internet penetration. When values are adjusted for internet penetration and Google market share they have some of the highest ‘per celiac’ searches of any communities.

Hyper markets also tend to have a lower proportion of generic searches than tier 1 and even tier 3 and the specific food searches proportion lies between that of tier 1 and tier 3.

These hyper communities are also often characterised by being smaller English speaking communities within larger non English lower economic wealth countries. It is likely that these enclaves have a higher than normal proportion of people who have access to enhanced health care (to be diagnosed in the first place) and that their relative wealth makes their gluten free tastes more exotic/ luxurious than even tier 1 communities . For example the top Russian English specific foods in order of search size are: pizza; gluten free beer; gluten free cakes; gluten free muffins.

Similarly Indonesian English speaking searches searched in order of size for: gluten free pizza, gluten free pasta; gluten free muffins then flour.

GLOBAL CONCLUSIONS

The raw search versus ‘adjusted celiac search’ plots shows a linear relationship between the two parameters . While this may be expected, this graph reveals Russia China and Indonesia as anomalies to this trend. As discussed previously, the things these places have in common are that they all have very large populations, are developing countries and have low internet penetration.

The reasons for these outliers are discussed in hyper markets section above however one of the most useful things is to see how so many developed and developing communities are clustered at the undeveloped market end of this graph . While Australia, US and Singapore markets are not anywhere near fully developed as yet (still a large undiagnosed amount of people – much less than the 1 in 100 forecast), it shows that there is a very large room for development in these markets also. As being a celiac is a disease and has severe medical consequences for its sufferers, it is amazing that very developed countries such as France, Germany and Italy should have such lowly developed gluten demand.

Even more remarkable is the implications of the plot for ‘ Adjusted celiac values V GDP per person’ resulting in a strong logarithmic trend . Ignoring the effects of outlier hypermarkets such as Russia, China and Indonesia, it can be seen that most countries lie on a steadily decreasing arc as the celiac search values increase.

This clearly demonstrates that for the majority of countries analysed that wealth (GDP per person) is a clear indicator of gluten free demand and/ or celiac diagnosis. While India and Mexico might also appear slightly off the log trend, it should be noted that these countries have very low internet penetration and so the adjustment factors to convert tier raw values into celiac search values are much more sensitive to small changes in media estimations of internet and Google share.

The relationships also suggests that particularly for countries with at least moderate internet penetration, that knowing their GDP per person value may allow an estimate of their gluten free market development and/ or diagnosis level. 

Similar Allergy Articles

• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• Celiac disease affects 1 in 100. But Global diagnosis is related to a country’s wealth. See the results of gluten free demand in GFP Matrix analysis
• How Mature is the US Gluten Free Market? Comparison With Aus, Canada, Mexico & Brazil Yields the Gfp Matrix. See Why US is Tier 1 !
• Gluten Free foods are the fastest growing food category since 2004, see the growth forecasts up to 2012!

The definition of Tier 1 (very low) and Tier 3 (very high) gluten markets

Outliers to the standard trend called hyper and hypo markets

A linear relationship is shown between raw searches and Adjusted Celiac Searches

A logarithmic relation is shown between a countries adjusted searches and the wealth of the country (per person).

This research draws together all previous GFP Matrix research and articles on the GFP website and is based on analysis of Google search results for gluten products made in December 2008. The analysis compares communities in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Communities are defined as specific language segments within a country. Most countries have the bulk of their market defined by their incumbent language searches and English language searches.

To assist analysis, gluten related search terms were divided into seven groups as shown below. Only the top 50 search terms were used for detailed statistical analysis, but in most cases, these fifty terms represent 95% of all terms.

Gluten Group Composition:

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

GF Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

Specific GF Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

Another main concept in this research was the development of a term called ‘ Adjusted Celiac searches’ . This value is based on raw gluten search term volumes and ‘adjusted’ (increased) to account for internet usage in a country as well as the probable total search engine gluten queries (using specific country Google Market share as the basis). This adjusted value thus estimates the total gluten searches as if 100% of a country had internet access and all search engine results were used. This intermediate value is then divided by 100 to gain a monthly ‘adjusted celiac search’ value. This assumes that the average celiac rate is approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed). This hypothetical value thus estimates the average number of times that a celiac searched for gluten free products in a community per month – assuming that all celiac’s search. Note that the main difference in English spelling in all countries is whether they use celiac (UK derived) or celiac (USA).

While it was found that a communities number of raw searches per population can act as a rough guide to its level of development, there are several exceptions. It was found that at the very low (Tier 3) and high raw searches positions (Tier 1), a pattern emerged in how the search groups are proportioned. See below:

TIER

1 characteristics

The primary classification of this group is high raw search results (searches / population). The group comprises: Australia (0.0218), US (0.0123); Canada English (0.0175); UK (0.0135); Singapore English (0.02730). Singapore’s standout result is partly due to the countries very high economic success (GDP per person) and its very high usage of telecommunications (see Asia GFP Matrix article).

At the high ‘raw search’ end of the spectrum, (AND high adjusted celiac searches) it was found that there are a high proportion of ‘generic gluten searches’ compared to other groups. It was also found that the majority of these searches were for CORE generic terms such as: gluten, gluten free, gluten free food, gluten free products etc

And of these generic searches, usually two terms comprise 90% or more of the total group’s searches . There are also usually more than ten generic terms in the top 50 search terms. While several tier 3 communities also have the top two terms being a high proportion of the group, the group usually comprises only five or less terms.

The second highest group is usually the celiac group . Like the generic group these terms are often CORE terms such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance etc.

The specific food group on average has a low proportion of seven percent of the top 50 searches.

It is speculated that the reason for the top two groups comprise 70% TO 80% of top 50 searches are that in the generic group, these communities are in high internet penetration and have high economic wealth countries where high demand has created a high supply of gluten websites. The gluten specific websites act like gluten malls with internal search functions that people use to find the gluten info they are after. Whereas in less developed countries these large sites may not exist and people have learned to use unique and three or four word search terms to find what they want right from the search engine stage.

The high proportion of celiac group searches are most likely by newly diagnosed people and older diagnosed attempting to find if new medical breakthroughs have occurred in the disease. Again CORE terms usually dominate this group because there are enough large all encompassing celiac devoted sites that provide the answers people are seeking.

What foods to TIER 1 communities search for? The table below shows that bread (1.6); is almost always the first and/ or second searched for term. Then on average the next three most popular specific food items are cake (2.5), dairy (3.5) and pizza (3.8).

TIER 3

The primary classification of this group is very low raw search results per population . The group comprise communities such as: US Spanish (0.0011); Mexico Spanish (0.0004); Brazil Portuguese (0.006); China Simplified (0.009); India Hindi ( (0.0004); Indonesia Indo ( 0.0008).

As can be seen from the table, the average generic search proportion for the tier 4 communities was 32% (compared to tier 1, 58%). While compared to Tier 1 communities, the average proportion of the specific foods group was three times as high at 22%.

Of the specific foods, on average the highest average ranked tier four foods were: cake (1.3), pizza (2.0), cookies (2.3), flour (2.7), bread (3.3), corn (3.5), oatmeal (3.6)

Tier 2

These communities are developing gluten free markets. Their raw searches lie somewhere between tier 1 and tier 3 communities. In graph plots of raw or adjusted celiac searches versus GDP or other similar metrics these communities form the bridge between tier 1 and tier 3 communities.

While some tier 2 or tier 3 communities may appear to have high generic searches, often a high proportion of these are for non-core terms such as: gluten free breakfast, gluten free snacks, gf desserts, gf gifts. etc

Hypo markets

These are markets that exist in highly developed countries (like tier 1 communities) have very low raw gluten searches (like tier 3 communities) and very high proportions of generic gluten searches (like tier 1) markets.

Three classic examples of tier 2 communities are the incumbent language searches in: Germany, France & Spain.

It can be seen that the average raw search value is 0.0016, the average % of Core generic terms is 81% (much higher than the average tier 1 communities) and specific foods is 6% – very close to tier 1.

Typically the specific foods searched for are similar to tier 1 communities. For example the top three foods searched for by French speaking people in France were: gluten free Flour, oatmeal and rye flour.

Assuming that European communities have a typical proportion of celiac’s per population, the low raw searches are an anomaly. These communities have a high internet penetration and relatively high Google market share so the low share is likely to be caused by low diagnosis within the communities. These areas still have a relatively high level of wheat and gluten consumption via breads and pastas so either there is something else in their diet keeping celiac disease at bay, or they find their gluten products some other way.

Hyper Markets

These are ‘ over performing’ markets.

On raw searches per population they appear like tier 3 communities, that is they have very low search values, however when adjusted for Internet penetration and Google share, they have over performing high values for ‘celiac searches’ per month.

Typically, unlike hypo markets, they are developing communities with relatively low GDP per person values. Prime examples of hyper markets are Russia English Speaking, China Traditional and Indonesia English speaking

The average raw search values are low size at 0.0035 but these convert to a very high celiac search value of 5.4. This means that these large population countries have relatively low searches, also have low internet penetration. When values are adjusted for internet penetration and Google market share they have some of the highest ‘per celiac’ searches of any communities.

Hyper markets also tend to have a lower proportion of generic searches than tier 1 and even tier 3 and the specific food searches proportion lies between that of tier 1 and tier 3.

These hyper communities are also often characterised by being smaller English speaking communities within larger non English lower economic wealth countries. It is likely that these enclaves have a higher than normal proportion of people who have access to enhanced health care (to be diagnosed in the first place) and that their relative wealth makes their gluten free tastes more exotic/ luxurious than even tier 1 communities . For example the top Russian English specific foods in order of search size are: pizza; gluten free beer; gluten free cakes; gluten free muffins.

Similarly Indonesian English speaking searches searched in order of size for: gluten free pizza, gluten free pasta; gluten free muffins then flour.

GLOBAL CONCLUSIONS

The raw search versus ‘adjusted celiac search’ plots shows a linear relationship between the two parameters . While this may be expected, this graph reveals Russia China and Indonesia as anomalies to this trend. As discussed previously, the things these places have in common are that they all have very large populations, are developing countries and have low internet penetration.

The reasons for these outliers are discussed in hyper markets section above however one of the most useful things is to see how so many developed and developing communities are clustered at the undeveloped market end of this graph . While Australia, US and Singapore markets are not anywhere near fully developed as yet (still a large undiagnosed amount of people – much less than the 1 in 100 forecast), it shows that there is a very large room for development in these markets also. As being a celiac is a disease and has severe medical consequences for its sufferers, it is amazing that very developed countries such as France, Germany and Italy should have such lowly developed gluten demand.

Even more remarkable is the implications of the plot for ‘ Adjusted celiac values V GDP per person’ resulting in a strong logarithmic trend . Ignoring the effects of outlier hypermarkets such as Russia, China and Indonesia, it can be seen that most countries lie on a steadily decreasing arc as the celiac search values increase.

This clearly demonstrates that for the majority of countries analysed that wealth (GDP per person) is a clear indicator of gluten free demand and/ or celiac diagnosis. While India and Mexico might also appear slightly off the log trend, it should be noted that these countries have very low internet penetration and so the adjustment factors to convert tier raw values into celiac search values are much more sensitive to small changes in media estimations of internet and Google share.

The relationships also suggests that particularly for countries with at least moderate internet penetration, that knowing their GDP per person value may allow an estimate of their gluten free market development and/ or diagnosis level. 

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The concept of the GFP matrix was developed to understand what constitutes the characteristics of a mature gluten free market and how different communities approach searching for gluten free products. This article explores the differences between

Australia and the US and key European communities.

So far in the research of markets there has been a relatively straight line trend on the GFP matrix for a countries gluten free market development. That is, countries in early stages of celiac detection have had a relatively low number of gluten related searches (per head of celiac population) and a low % of their gluten free searches devoted to a group classified as ‘generic gluten free product’ searches. The second highest group is usually celiac related with one or two terms taking up the majority of searches. The other groups are often a much smaller proportion of the top 50 searches.

Group Composition:

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

GF Specific Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

It was theorised that the high percentage of generic searches was because as markets reach higher levels of development (high searches relative to population) they increase the number of generic searches. This is because they have found that in a developed market, gluten free product websites tend to be ‘one stop shops’ where they can search for specific items inside of the site.

While most European communities show a very low number of gluten related searches and so are very undeveloped/ undiagnosed – the low generic search group proportion  rule doesn’t hold well for many of the European countries studied. This may be because at a very low search rate there is high volatility and heterogeneous search patterns by locals, long term celiacs, newly diagnosed celiacs and foreigners. In these communities an amendment to the rule is that the high % generic searches can still exist in low search countries, however as the total generic group % increases, so does the % of one or two core generic terms inside of that groups searches, which is part of the expected GFP Matrix trend.

The trend also still holds true that in high raw search value communities there tends to be a high level of generic searches followed by the celiac group searches. And each group tends to have one or two high one or two word general terms that dominate the group.

This does not necessarily apply to Russia because its low raw search values may be artificially inflated by its low Google market share and internet penetration adjusting its search values very high. Relatively high search values in a small search population could be attributed to either very newly diagnosed voracious gluten searchers or an established diagnosed group – noting that there is a stark comparison between the Russian English speaking and Russian speaking community search profiles.

SUMMARY

Compared to countries previously analysed, the Europe communities were VERY closely clustered together on the GFP Matrix. While the % of ‘generic gluten free’ terms ranged from 30% to near 90% they all fell within 0.2 to 0.8 searches (adjusted) per celiac per month range – except for the UK and Russia. The lower celiac search communities typically also did not have enough terms to fill the Google search term cut off of 200 terms.

While a value of ONE search per celiac per month may seem very low, it should be considered that potentially only 10% to 20% of celiacs have been diagnosed even in highly developed countries, and of those who have been diagnosed maybe only 50% or less regularly search for gluten free terms. This could mean that even for the adjusted (values increased taking into account Google market share and internet penetration) search values calculated, the celiac search values could be only 10% of the actual current average search values of celiacs. For examples, an adjusted value of 2.2 (diagnosed and undiagnosed) ‘searches per celiac per month’ for

UK

celiacs could equate to 10 to 20 average searches performed each month by actual current diagnosed celiacs.

In the analysis, searches were adjusted for Google market share and internet penetration to estimate the number of celiac (divide population by 100) searches per month in two communities in most European countries – local language and English. In the two highest % generic search term group communities, Germany and France, the English speaking communities used open phases such as ‘and gluten free’ and ‘gluten free in’ rather than the standard ‘gluten’ phrases that local language communities used.

The UK had the second highest ‘per celiac’ rating for Europe at 2.2 (adjusted) searches per celiac per month. This is nearly three times any other community analysed except for Russia. It also reinforced the GFP Rule that high celiac search countries tend to have a high percentage of generic gluten free group and in particular one to two very dominant generic terms.

RUSSIA has a very low Google market share and low internet penetration. But when it’s raw gluten free foods searches are adjusted for this, the combined Russian celiac search value, Russian and English speaking communities, had a very similar celiac search value to Australia and the US. On a community basis, ‘Russia – Russian Speaking’, had the highest celiac search of any country/ community so far analysed.

Russian English speaking had a total of 101 terms over 244 thousand searches in December 2008, while Russian, Russian speaking, had only 23 terms over 360 thousand searches. Like Mexico and Brazil, one of the more telling features of the Russian gluten free market was a comparison between specific gluten free foods for its local (Russian) community and its English speaking community. The Russian speaking community had very sizeable searches for food staples such as gluten free bread, gluten free cake and cookies . By comparison the Russia English speaking community had relatively sizeable searches for: pizza, beer, cakes and muffins .

For South American countries previously analysed, it was speculated that searches mainly for food staples in communities suggested a relatively low economic status while high searches for relative luxury items such as beer and pizza are often searched for by more affluent longer term celiacs within a community. While ‘cakes’ rated high in both Russian communities they are often considered as a social / family gathering necessity, rather than a luxury item. Again, it would appear that the English community in Russia search for more affluent items than the main country inhabits – Russian speaking Russians. There may be a correlation between learning to speak English, or being an English speaking ‘foreigner’ and higher economic wealth in Russia.

EUROPEAN COMMUNITY DETAILED ANALYSIS

UK

The largest group in the UK (English speaking) was the generic gluten free group with 10 terms comprising 51% of top 50 searches. Of the 376 thousand searches in this group the top two terms of gluten and gluten free comprised 89% of searches.

The celiac group was the second highest group at 26% of search volumes and out of its four terms, celiac and celiac disease accounted for 94% of volumes.

Wheat free group was the third highest group. Its five terms made up 12% of the top 50 searches or 86,000. The vast majority of this groups searches were from: ‘wheat free’ (49,500) and ‘wheat gluten’ 14,800 searches. This is consistent with the GFP Matrix rule of ‘high dominance by simple search terms’ in the leading groups – in high ‘per celiac’ search communities.

The fourth highest group was the ‘specific gluten free foods’ and its 13 terms made up 7% of the top 50 volumes. The top two terms were bread related (19,800) and gluten free cake (8,100).

GERMANY

Germany has a very high percentage of searches in the generic category, however it also has the lowest total number of searches per population of any community analysed in Europe. German speaking and English speaking communities in Germany also are the closest paired communities of any country. This suggests a close homogeneity for these languages in the gluten free community in Germany.

German is spoken across the country and English is taught in many schools so both languages should have relatively the same number of searches, and they do.

GERMAN, English Speaking

Has 80% of search terms in the generic group. The second highest category is gluten diet which as only 8%.  In the generic group there are 18 terms accounting for 55 thousand searches out of 70,000 top 50 searches. However rather than generic terms such as gluten, gluten free foods etc the top two terms are:

“and gluten free” (27,100)

“gluten free in” (18,100)

This suggests that these terms were part of some search that may have included a specific search term such as bread or wheat etc, but was not defined by Google data.

GERMAN, German speaking

The English language in Germany had a VERY similar profile to the German speaking profile. This is quite different to the two language profiles for Mexico and Brazil discussed in previous research which had very different profiles for the different language searches. The difference here maybe that whether Germans are German or English speaking, their socio economic status is similar, and so the things they search for are very similar.

Interestingly, not only is English speaking widespread in Germany, its number of gluten search terms is actually greater than the German searches. German language searches in Germany were only a total of 75 thousand for a total of 40 terms. Of these 83% of terms were generic gluten searches. HOWEVER, unlike the English searches, they did search for the most standard generic gluten free terms such as ‘gluten’, rather than convoluted ‘and gluten free’ terms. The second highest group in this community was ‘gluten diet’ with two terms accounting for 6% of total top 50 searches.

Of the specific gluten free foods the most popular was Oatmeal (2,900).

FRANCE

The French proximity to Germany might suggest a similar search profile and this is the case. Next to Germany, France has the highest % of generic gluten free term searches of all communities so far analysed and about double the amount of gluten free searches per head of population compared to Germany. That said, both these countries have nearly the lowest number of searches for the developed world (less than 0.2 searches per month).

FRANCE, English Speaking

The FRANCE, English speaking community has almost exactly the same profile and highest rating terms as Germany English speaking. Out of 91 thousand top 50 term searches, generic gluten free terms accounted for 69% (63 thousand searches). The top two terms were:

“and gluten free” (27,100)

“gluten free in” (18,100)

The second highest group was specific gluten foods at 8% of top 50 volumes or 7 thousand searches. Of these six terms, the three largest were: High gluten flour (3,600), and gluten free pizza crusts and gluten free brownies – 1,900 searches each.

FRANCE,

French speaking

This group was very similar to German, German speaking, in that the generic gluten terms group accounted for 86% of top 50 searches or 139 thousand out of 167 thousand. Also its top terms were the same as German, German speaking: gluten term searches were 110,000. The second highest term was the same as German English speaking: “and gluten free” (27,100)

Like FRANCE, English speaking, the second highest group was the specific gluten free group. At 7% this ten term group accounted for 11 thousand searches. The top three terms were: ‘high gluten flour’ (3,600), ‘rye free’ and ‘gluten free oatmeal’ – 2,900 each.

It is noteworthy that these specific food terms are food staples rather than luxuries or social event foods such as cakes or cookies etc.

ITALY

This country was analysed for Italian and English speaking people. While Germany and France had low searches per head of population and a very high proportion of generic gluten searches, Italy had more generic search terms but a relatively low % of generic terms of the top 50.

ITALY

English Speaking

The generic gluten free group only consisted 32% of searches of the top 50 terms. This equates to 26 thousand of the 84 thousand top 50 searches. Even though the proportion of generic gluten searches was low, there were 18 terms in this group. The terms were very evenly spread in search numbers with the top two being: gluten free dessert(s) (9,000); with 2,900 searches for gluten free meals and breakfasts each. This means that the top three terms were not the standard searches encountered in other communities such as ‘gluten’ and ‘gluten free products’.

The second and third highest groups were: Gluten diet (8 terms 29% searches) and ‘Specific GF foods’ ( 5 terms 18% top 50 searches). The gluten diet group was dominated by three four and five word terms rather than the basic terms like gluten diet found in the US and Australia.

The specific GF foods group, like France, was also mostly dominated by food staples: muffins (4,400), flour (3,600), oatmeal (2,900).

ITALY

Italian Speaking

This had a more ‘expected’ generic food group % of 65% (66 thousand out of 103 thousand) however the 14 terms were again dominated by terms that looked like unfinished requests:

‘and gluten free’ (27,100)

‘gluten free in’ (18,100)

‘of gluten free’ (8,100)

The second highest group was ‘specific GF foods’ whose 8 terms comprised 16% of the total top 50 searches. The two highest terms were: Gluten free cookies (12,100) and ‘high gluten flour’ 3,600.

The third highest group was ‘GF locations’. It’s 22 terms made up 12% of top 50 searches (12 thousand searches). The group had a long low volume tail with the top three terms being: ‘gluten free restaurants in’ 4,400; ‘york gluten free’ 2,900 and ‘gluten free London’ 1,600.

SPAIN

Had a typically low celiac search value of 1.2 (English and Spanish speaking). Its 131 terms accounted for 158 thousand searches that with relatively low Google share and internet usage equated to an adjusted value of 532 thousand searches.

SPAIN, English speaking

With generic search terms only accounting for 39% of top 50 searches, this was one of the lowest values encountered for core European communities. The top 50 terms made up only 71 thousand searches. While the generic group had 17 terms, the top term gluten free dessert(s) was only searched for 9,000 times.

As was the trend for several other European Countries with low celiac per head searches, Spain English speaking’s second highest group was specific gluten free foods. Seven terms accounted for 21% of top 50 searches. The three highest terms were: gluten free muffins (4,400); high gluten flour (3,600) and ‘gluten free oatmeal (2,900).

Similarly to Italy, this community had a high proportion of Gluten free location group searches, with its four terms accounting for 18% of top 50 searches. The top two searches were: gluten free restaurants in’ (4,400) and ‘gluten free stores’ (4,400)

SPAIN, Spanish speaking

This community only had 28 gluten related searches accounting for 91 thousand searches. In complete contrast to the Spanish Speaking community, the main category is the generic group accounting for a large 75% of searches (50 thousand by ‘gluten’).

The second, third, fourth and fifth groups are all around 6%. Of most interest is the specific food group that has seven terms, with the top two being: high gluten flour (3,600) and gluten free oatmeal (2,900).

RUSSIA

Of all the countries analysed so far, Russia (Russian and English speaking) had the highest adjusted gluten free searches per head of population. Although in Russia Google only has about 25% market share with local company Yandax gaining over 60% share, the analysis calculations take this into account. It is this low Google share coupled with very low internet penetration (23%) that causes the combined (Russian and English speaking) search volumes to be adjusted from 604 thousand to 8.3M, and hence a per celiac search per month value of 5.9.

RUSSIA

English speaking

Russia’s English speaking gluten free searchers searched around 244 thousand times a month on Google. There was a total of only 101 search terms averaged over the previous year with the profile having a very long low tail. Of the top 50 terms, 14 were generic gluten terms but only accounted for 11% of the volumes. The top two terms were:

Gluten free dessert(s) (9,000); and ‘gluten free meals’ (4.800).

The highest group was actually ‘specific gluten free food’ which accounted for 23% of top 50 searches (54 thousand) and ‘Celiac’ terms also 23% of searches.  Of the ‘specific gluten free food’ terms the top five were:

Gluten free pizza (14,800)

Gluten free beer (12,100)

Gluten free cakes (6,600)

Corn gluten meal (6,600)

Gluten free muffins (4,400)

The third highest group ‘celiac’ was dominated by ‘celiacs’ which had 33 thousand of the groups 55 thousand searches.

RUSSIA

Russian speaking

The three top groups have similar search share around 25%.

The top group was the GF specific foods which has 8 terms accounting for 26% of top 50 searches, or 93 thousand searches. The top two searches in this group are variations of ‘gluten free food(s)’ taking 66 thousand searches.

The equal second group was GF specific foods (24%) with the top three searches being gluten free bread (49,500) and ‘gluten free cake’ (22,200), gluten free cookies’ (12,100).

The ‘celiac’ group accounted for 24% of top 50 searches. With only four terms, its 87 thousand searches were dominated by ‘gluten intolerance’ (87,540) and ‘gluten allergy’ (32,500).   

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The definition of Tier 1 (very low) and Tier 3 (very high) gluten markets

Outliers to the standard trend called hyper and hypo markets

A linear relationship is shown between raw searches and Adjusted Celiac Searches

A logarithmic relation is shown between a countries adjusted searches and the wealth of the country (per person).

This research draws together all previous GFP Matrix research and articles on the GFP website and is based on analysis of Google search results for gluten products made in December 2008. The analysis compares communities in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Communities are defined as specific language segments within a country. Most countries have the bulk of their market defined by their incumbent language searches and English language searches.

To assist analysis, gluten related search terms were divided into seven groups as shown below. Only the top 50 search terms were used for detailed statistical analysis, but in most cases, these fifty terms represent 95% of all terms.

Gluten Group Composition:

Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.

Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.

Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking

Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies

Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy

GF Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant

Specific GF Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

Another main concept in this research was the development of a term called ‘ Adjusted Celiac searches’ . This value is based on raw gluten search term volumes and ‘adjusted’ (increased) to account for internet usage in a country as well as the probable total search engine gluten queries (using specific country Google Market share as the basis). This adjusted value thus estimates the total gluten searches as if 100% of a country had internet access and all search engine results were used. This intermediate value is then divided by 100 to gain a monthly ‘adjusted celiac search’ value. This assumes that the average celiac rate is approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed). This hypothetical value thus estimates the average number of times that a celiac searched for gluten free products in a community per month – assuming that all celiac’s search. Note that the main difference in English spelling in all countries is whether they use celiac (UK derived) or celiac (USA).

While it was found that a communities number of raw searches per population can act as a rough guide to its level of development, there are several exceptions. It was found that at the very low (Tier 3) and high raw searches positions (Tier 1), a pattern emerged in how the search groups are proportioned. See below:

TIER

1 characteristics

The primary classification of this group is high raw search results (searches / population). The group comprises: Australia (0.0218), US (0.0123); Canada English (0.0175); UK (0.0135); Singapore English (0.02730). Singapore’s standout result is partly due to the countries very high economic success (GDP per person) and its very high usage of telecommunications (see Asia GFP Matrix article).

At the high ‘raw search’ end of the spectrum, (AND high adjusted celiac searches) it was found that there are a high proportion of ‘generic gluten searches’ compared to other groups. It was also found that the majority of these searches were for CORE generic terms such as: gluten, gluten free, gluten free food, gluten free products etc

And of these generic searches, usually two terms comprise 90% or more of the total group’s searches . There are also usually more than ten generic terms in the top 50 search terms. While several tier 3 communities also have the top two terms being a high proportion of the group, the group usually comprises only five or less terms.

The second highest group is usually the celiac group . Like the generic group these terms are often CORE terms such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance etc.

The specific food group on average has a low proportion of seven percent of the top 50 searches.

It is speculated that the reason for the top two groups comprise 70% TO 80% of top 50 searches are that in the generic group, these communities are in high internet penetration and have high economic wealth countries where high demand has created a high supply of gluten websites. The gluten specific websites act like gluten malls with internal search functions that people use to find the gluten info they are after. Whereas in less developed countries these large sites may not exist and people have learned to use unique and three or four word search terms to find what they want right from the search engine stage.

The high proportion of celiac group searches are most likely by newly diagnosed people and older diagnosed attempting to find if new medical breakthroughs have occurred in the disease. Again CORE terms usually dominate this group because there are enough large all encompassing celiac devoted sites that provide the answers people are seeking.

What foods to TIER 1 communities search for? The table below shows that bread (1.6); is almost always the first and/ or second searched for term. Then on average the next three most popular specific food items are cake (2.5), dairy (3.5) and pizza (3.8).

TIER 3

The primary classification of this group is very low raw search results per population . The group comprise communities such as: US Spanish (0.0011); Mexico Spanish (0.0004); Brazil Portuguese (0.006); China Simplified (0.009); India Hindi ( (0.0004); Indonesia Indo ( 0.0008).

As can be seen from the table, the average generic search proportion for the tier 4 communities was 32% (compared to tier 1, 58%). While compared to Tier 1 communities, the average proportion of the specific foods group was three times as high at 22%.

Of the specific foods, on average the highest average ranked tier four foods were: cake (1.3), pizza (2.0), cookies (2.3), flour (2.7), bread (3.3), corn (3.5), oatmeal (3.6)

Tier 2

These communities are developing gluten free markets. Their raw searches lie somewhere between tier 1 and tier 3 communities. In graph plots of raw or adjusted celiac searches versus GDP or other similar metrics these communities form the bridge between tier 1 and tier 3 communities.

While some tier 2 or tier 3 communities may appear to have high generic searches, often a high proportion of these are for non-core terms such as: gluten free breakfast, gluten free snacks, gf desserts, gf gifts. etc

Hypo markets

These are markets that exist in highly developed countries (like tier 1 communities) have very low raw gluten searches (like tier 3 communities) and very high proportions of generic gluten searches (like tier 1) markets.

Three classic examples of tier 2 communities are the incumbent language searches in: Germany, France & Spain.

It can be seen that the average raw search value is 0.0016, the average % of Core generic terms is 81% (much higher than the average tier 1 communities) and specific foods is 6% – very close to tier 1.

Typically the specific foods searched for are similar to tier 1 communities. For example the top three foods searched for by French speaking people in France were: gluten free Flour, oatmeal and rye flour.

Assuming that European communities have a typical proportion of celiac’s per population, the low raw searches are an anomaly. These communities have a high internet penetration and relatively high Google market share so the low share is likely to be caused by low diagnosis within the communities. These areas still have a relatively high level of wheat and gluten consumption via breads and pastas so either there is something else in their diet keeping celiac disease at bay, or they find their gluten products some other way.

Hyper Markets

These are ‘ over performing’ markets.

On raw searches per population they appear like tier 3 communities, that is they have very low search values, however when adjusted for Internet penetration and Google share, they have over performing high values for ‘celiac searches’ per month.

Typically, unlike hypo markets, they are developing communities with relatively low GDP per person values. Prime examples of hyper markets are Russia English Speaking, China Traditional and Indonesia English speaking

The average raw search values are low size at 0.0035 but these convert to a very high celiac search value of 5.4. This means that these large population countries have relatively low searches, also have low internet penetration. When values are adjusted for internet penetration and Google market share they have some of the highest ‘per celiac’ searches of any communities.

Hyper markets also tend to have a lower proportion of generic searches than tier 1 and even tier 3 and the specific food searches proportion lies between that of tier 1 and tier 3.

These hyper communities are also often characterised by being smaller English speaking communities within larger non English lower economic wealth countries. It is likely that these enclaves have a higher than normal proportion of people who have access to enhanced health care (to be diagnosed in the first place) and that their relative wealth makes their gluten free tastes more exotic/ luxurious than even tier 1 communities . For example the top Russian English specific foods in order of search size are: pizza; gluten free beer; gluten free cakes; gluten free muffins.

Similarly Indonesian English speaking searches searched in order of size for: gluten free pizza, gluten free pasta; gluten free muffins then flour.

GLOBAL CONCLUSIONS

The raw search versus ‘adjusted celiac search’ plots shows a linear relationship between the two parameters . While this may be expected, this graph reveals Russia China and Indonesia as anomalies to this trend. As discussed previously, the things these places have in common are that they all have very large populations, are developing countries and have low internet penetration.

The reasons for these outliers are discussed in hyper markets section above however one of the most useful things is to see how so many developed and developing communities are clustered at the undeveloped market end of this graph . While Australia, US and Singapore markets are not anywhere near fully developed as yet (still a large undiagnosed amount of people – much less than the 1 in 100 forecast), it shows that there is a very large room for development in these markets also. As being a celiac is a disease and has severe medical consequences for its sufferers, it is amazing that very developed countries such as France, Germany and Italy should have such lowly developed gluten demand.

Even more remarkable is the implications of the plot for ‘ Adjusted celiac values V GDP per person’ resulting in a strong logarithmic trend . Ignoring the effects of outlier hypermarkets such as Russia, China and Indonesia, it can be seen that most countries lie on a steadily decreasing arc as the celiac search values increase.

This clearly demonstrates that for the majority of countries analysed that wealth (GDP per person) is a clear indicator of gluten free demand and/ or celiac diagnosis. While India and Mexico might also appear slightly off the log trend, it should be noted that these countries have very low internet penetration and so the adjustment factors to convert tier raw values into celiac search values are much more sensitive to small changes in media estimations of internet and Google share.

The relationships also suggests that particularly for countries with at least moderate internet penetration, that knowing their GDP per person value may allow an estimate of their gluten free market development and/ or diagnosis level. 

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